A few days ago the Office of National Statistics reported predictions that the UK Population would reach 70 Million in 2026, an increase of 5 millions in just over ten years.

Such an increase in population has enormous policy implications, yet the political response is the continual cry for more houses. A detailed examination of the projections shows that they are based on assumptions that are clearly unsustainable.

These assumptions should be analysed and related to policy options. It seems unlikely that Labour or Conservative will do so. Lib Dems, while regaining strength and support should work towards an understanding of population dynamics and migration and determine policy based on facts.

It is not sensible to base policy on the projection that there will be exactly 237 thousand females will migrate into the country in every year from 2021 until 2114 and that 147 thousand will leave. nor the the Total fertility rate will remain at 1.89 for the whole of this period (1.89 is below replacement level)

The tables showing the projected populations at mid years by age last birthday show that is the younger age groups that are being boosted by in-migration and the older age groups that are being diminished by out migration.

We have little idea of these the nature of these components of change. It is likely that most of the in migrants who settle permanently come from South Asia (and Britain accepts more non EU migrants than the whole of the rest of the EU) and most of those leaving are those with EU roots who are are returning home. But we do not know.

I would like to see a serious policy debate by the Lib Dems to analyse migration flows and determine sensible population policies.

Free movement of peoples within the EU is not a problem, it is like the free movement of people within the UK and will not lead to long term problems. More than half the poles who came to this country in 2004 have now returned home and many of the rest will do so. Many of the British Builders who went to Germany, epitomised in Auf Wiedersehn Pet haven returned to the UK. Brits who want to retire to Spain will never be compensated by Spaniards who want to retire to the UK!

To take the projections of the ONS as a basis for panic measures, such as designating large ares of open country for housing is only of benefit to the housebuilders.

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